Fibre in the loop will be ultimate technology, new Bell-backed study predicts

The huge growth in demand for broadband will force all telcos to shift from current DSL technologies to fibre-in-the-loop (FITL), a new report concludes. Produced by Technology Futures Inc (TFI) of Austin TX, the study is expected to help its Canadian backer better plan for the eventual phase-out of copper. "We look at the resulting findings of this report in our depreciation studies in order to try to determine appropriate service lives for our outside plant assets, particularly our copper cable," says Ralph Nobel, Bell Canada's representative on the report's advisory board. Bell was also the only Canadian telco among TFI's sponsorship group. Even though most of the data contained in the report is drawn from American figures, the study does provide valuable information for Bell. "We don't necessarily have exactly the same numbers because each situation is different," he told Network Letter. "But we certainly look at it as indicative of the trends and we also look at it in terms of to see whether or not we are in tune with the rest of the industry in our depreciation characteristics for copper cable." While the study clearly favours fibre for the future, it recognizes the importance of using copper for some high-speed capabilities in the near term. "Digital subscriber line has the advantage of utilizing significant amounts of existing infrastructure," report author Lawrence Vanston writes in The Impacts of Competition and Technology on Local Exchange Outside Plant Assets. "However, it has limitations that become more apparent as subscriber densities and bandwidth requirements are increased. In the long run, FITL will prove necessary. Thus, ILECs have choices regarding FITL and DSL that will involve balancing short- and long-term considerations." Nobel agrees that FITL is the wave of the future. "Everything that I've seen in the industry is suggesting that. There will be more and more fibre in the loop," he predicts. "Everybody is moving in that direction, not every company has the concrete plans yet." FITL assumptions TFI made certain assumptions behind FITL in terms of distribution distance. The early scenario suggests all high-speed digital services at a minimum of 6 Mbps are served on FITL, while others utilize copper. The forecast for the percentage of distribution loop length on fibre is the percentage of households that have 6 Mbps or more available. The latter scenario assumes maximum use of DSL, subject to loop length limitations, while the second scenario uses a mixed strategy. This would maximize the value of DSL in providing customer service, but permit telcos to avoid massive fibre investments when penetration is low. The National Broadband Task Force has recommended that all Canadians have access to at least 1.5 Mbps within three years (NL, June 18/01). Some have suggested this could widen the existing gap between Canada and the United States in terms of Internet connectivity. Nobel is less certain of that. "I'm not sure the broadband task force report has been fully accepted. It has been published, put out there, but I'm not sure it represents policy yet," he says. "It's a fact the Canadians are ahead of Americans now. To the extent that the government would pursue the recommendations of the broadband task force, that would I think maintain our lead and perhaps lengthen it." The TFI study predicts that 1.5 Mbps will satisfy the typical user until 2005, when 6 Mbps will become the standard. That should hold until 2010, when 24 Mbps will become the norm. After 2015, the average user will require 100 Mbps, the researchers claim. These numbers differ from the observations of some Canadian service providers. When the Task Force study was released, several dismissed the 1.5 Mbps standard as too low (NL, July 3/01).

Fibre in the loop will be ultimate technology, new Bell-backed study predicts

News | 09/24/2001 4:00 am EDT

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