Broadband wireless market poised for growth: Maravedis

The broadband wireless access (BWA) market is expected to grow by leaps and bounds over the next several years, according to a new report from Maravedis. The Montreal-based research firm notes in a recent report, WiMAX and Broadband Wireless (Sub-11GHz) Worldwide Market Analysis and Trends 2006-2012, that there will be 87 million BWA subscribers, of which 67 million will subscribe to WiMAX services, by 2012. Below is an excerpt from the report. The fixed/portable broadband wireless access equipment market (sub-11 GHz) has grown from US$562 million to US$637 million – US$755 million when including point-to-point backhaul applications. Maravedis predicts the fixed broadband wireless market to pass US$1 billion in 2007-2008.The fundamentals for continued growth of broadband wireless remain sound. Broadband is becoming a necessity for many residential and business subscribers worldwide. The demand is exploding as the pricing of broadband services is rapidly decreasing. There were close to 250 million broadband subscribers worldwide in the middle of 2006, up from 130 million at the end of 2004. More than 100 million users still access the internet with dial-up, and more than 900 million use the internet occasionally but do not subscribe to a monthly service. The opportunity for BWA/WiMAX to serve those who want to switch to broadband service is huge in many parts of the world where wireline technologies may not be feasible. WiMAX – as part of a growing market for point-to-point backhaul and grid networks that connect increasingly to localized servers and storage and for person-to-person and group communications, entertainment and file sharing – will see rapid growth from its current starting point. On the backhaul side, the average monthly cost of backhaul can reach US$1,500-2,000 in many developing countries. Using BWA and WiMAX for backhaul in those countries is clearly indicated.Key FindingsSome 1.3 million broadband CPEs and over 48,000 base station sectors were shipped in 2005. In 2005, the access market reached US$635 million and the point-to-point backhaul market reached US$117 million. Alvarion remains the access-market leader, with a 22.6% market share, followed by Motorola Canopy and IP Wireless. EMEA, which represented 30.6% of overall 2005 broadband equipment sales, continues to represent the largest market opportunity, but Asia and North America will overtake it by 2007. Shipments of OFDM-based product already accounted for 31% of broadband equipment sales in 2005, up from 18% in 2004. By 2012, its share will grow to 90% with the adoption of WiMAX. WiMAX-certified equipment is expected to reach $140 million in 2006. BWA/WiMAX Service Provider TrendsMost of the current deployments of BWA/WiMAX systems are still being driven by greenfield operators in licensed bands or by WISPs that are using unlicensed bands. Maravedis believes that 2G operators and incumbents in developing countries will constitute an important market segment for WiMAX. Sprint-Nextel has once again in their combined history thrown down the gauntlet for disruptive wireless innovation. This is their boldest move yet: to jump from 3G CDMA systems to the next generation evolutionary path of MIMO/MAS-OFDMA 4G. The company had considered IP Wireless’ W-CDMA, Qualcomm’s FLASH OFDM, and other proposed systems but decided on WiMAX because it is widely and openly adopted and offers a broader framework for the evolution of wireless systems and technologies. By pushing rapidly toward multimode capabilities, Sprint and other major operators are establishing the nexus of momentum that ensures WiMAX’ success. This vortex will sweep in more operators, supply chain participants and regulatory reforms as it propels forward over the next two years.Key Findings:2.5 million subscribers worldwide had some form of fixed broadband (256+ kbps bidirectional) wireless access as of mid-2006. Total service revenues are estimated at US$3 billion in 2005, up from US$1.4 billion in 2004. Lower CPE cost, ideally below US$100, remains the number one expectation for service providers, especially in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China). The second-highest priority is for base stations to deliver more throughput and coverage – ahead of benefits such as "interoperability" or "ease of installation." Customers care about certification, standardization and economies of scale in the medium to long term, but they want robust equipment with NLOS capabilities today. Operators are also anxious to see the development of rich ecosystems that comprise handset suppliers and application developers. 65% of service providers interviewed prefer to wait for the 2005 version of WiMAX to be available before investing large amounts into network build-out or expansion. 802.16-2005 is now increasingly perceived as a total solution for both fixed and mobile applications.

Broadband wireless market poised for growth: Maravedis

News | 10/06/2006 4:00 am EDT

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