DTH providers need to double capacity by 2020, Nordicity says

Ottawa consulting firm Nordicity Group Ltd. says growing HD programming levels will strain the capacities of Bell ExpressVu and Star Choice. In its Market Assessment of Broadcast Market for Satellite Services in Canada created for Ciel Satellite Group, the research firm concludes that both DTH BDUs will have to at least double their orbital capacity by 2020. The study’s conclusion appears below. Overall, the research demonstrates that the demand for broadcast satellite bandwidth is outstripping the supply. Currently, channels are not launching in HD due to a satellite supply constraint. Other factors are slowing the move, primarily significant dual uplink and access fees for specialties in the current MPEG 2 environment. Further barriers include uncertainty about when OTA broadcasters have to switch off their analog signal, and in some genres, a limited supply of HD programming, and a low consumer base. However, going forward the study considers that a number of developments in the industry will greatly stimulate increased demand for satellite broadcast capacity:MPEG-4 will be rolled out, first for HD signals, allowing the carriage of greater HD signals per transponder. MPEG-4 effectively lowers the transport cost of channels, so that channels which have not launched in HD will feel less of a cost barrier to convert, and thus avoid being left behind; As new content becomes available, consumers will increasingly take up HDTV sets and HD enabled set-top boxes –by the time new satellites are operational in 2011, consumer uptake of set-top boxes will likely have reached about 42% penetration of TV households; The CRTC will likely impose –or target –an analog switch-off date, likely 2012. By this time, broadcasters are working towards an analog switch-off and can plan on switching off at least their analog terrestrial signals. In turn, the study forecast the number of channels in HD and SD by 2020, based on the following assumptions:By 2010, approximately 25% of channels have launched HD versions; by 2015 90%, and by 2020, 100%; First-mover HD converters (namely, premium services) begin to drop their SD signals from 2013; All US services are carried only in HD by the final conversion, from 2016; From 2013, new channels launch only in HD. According to these estimates, the total number of channels carried in HD by 2015 will reach up to over 425 channels on Bell ExpressVu, and almost 368 for Star Choice. Then:By 2011, both Bell ExpressVu and Star Choice are carrying HD signals at 7 Mbps per second, and SD signals at 2.2 Mbps. Until 2011, approximately 27 Mbps are carried per transponder; The number of transponders for Bell ExpressVu needed by 2020 for HD signals is 78 –at 32 transponders per satellite, this represents approximately three satellites for HD carriage only, four including one SD legacy satellite. Therefore, they will need two new in addition to their current two. The number of transponders for Star Choiceneeded by 2020 for HD signals is 68. This number represents a need for a total of 2.1 satellites for HD signals, in addition to a legacy one for SD, they will need a total of 3.1, i.e., two above their existing 1.5.

DTH providers need to double capacity by 2020, Nordicity says

Broadcast | December 6, 2006

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