2008 may not be a make or break year for WiMAX afterall

Analysts at Mobile World Congress earlier this month speculate that 2008 could be the year that decides WiMAX's success or failure. But one Canadian analyst remains bullish on the longer term prospects for this broadband wireless technology. Adlane Fellah, founder and CEO of research firm Maravedis Inc., discounted suggestions that 2008 would either see WiMAX cement its position as a mainstream technology or land in the niche status for broadband wireless. "Contrary to what some analysts, say 2008 is not a make or break year for WiMAX. WiMAX fundamentals remain strong as a technology supported by a large ecosystem and a pent-up demand for broadband wireless solutions," he wrote on his blog. "What is at stake here is which of LTE or WIMAX will get the lion's share of a multi-billion dollar business that will not be served by a single technology." WiMAX was dealt a major blow when Sprint-Nextel pulled out of an alliance with Clearwire that would have seen the two companies collaborate on a national WiMAX service offering. The two companies called off the marriage last November, just five months into their courtship. Sprint is still pushing forward with its WiMAX strategy albeit on a smaller scale, and there is speculation that the two companies could get back together. Fellah agrees WiMAX is in a tough spot: there are more than 250 trials and deployments worldwide but most have been small scale. "WiMAX needs the commitment and the heavy capex spending of large operators deploying large networks," the Maravedis CEO contended. To solidify the success of the broadband wireless technology, explained Fellah, there needs to be more Sprint-like supporters. Fellah suggested that at least one major deployment per continent would do the trick. "Korea, Japan, Russia, Taiwan and other countries may have the potential to become WiMAX hubs for a combination of motives that range from political to global technology positioning. What is likely is the continued growth of demand for wireless access solutions in most developing and rural regions worldwide contributing to a linear but solid demand for both WiMAX and proprietary solutions," Fellah wrote. The Maravedis founder was responding to comments from Andrew Parkin-White, principal analyst at Analysys Research, who suggested that 2008 would be the make or break year for WiMAX. Parkin-White noted that the small scale deployments of WiMAX keep customer premise equipment costs high, making it difficult for operators to take a risk. Parkin-White suggested that LTE "appears better suited to developed mobile markets, but its success depends on whether it can achieve targets for network performance at the right price and within the right timescales." The analyst also highlighted other difficulties facing WiMAX. Fixed broadband combined with femtocells and the versatility of high-speed packet access represent additional impediments to the success of WiMAX. Asked how the WiMAX landscape is evolving in Canada, Fellah suggested that operators here are still at the trial stage with limited commercial deployments. He expects to have more to report after speaking with the Canadian WiMAX operators over the coming weeks.

2008 may not be a make or break year for WiMAX afterall

News | February 26, 2008

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