Commentary: Battle for 4G mobile wireless begins to take shape

The fight for supremacy in next-generation mobile networks began in earnest when Sprint-Clearwire launched its Xhom mobile WiMAX service in Baltimore last month. And while the American operator is banking heavily on the as yet-to-be proven technology, many of the traditional wireless services have already announced that they are going to migrate to Long-Term Evolution (LTE).Verizon and AT&T in the US, Vodaphone in the UK and China Mobile have announced intentions to adopt LTE. In Canada, Rogers Communications has indicated that it will migrate to LTE at some point in the future. "The next logical step for us is LTE," David Robinson, VP of new business planning at Rogers Wireless, acknowledged in a recent interview.Questions around future plans for Bell Canada and Telus Corp. with respect to their next-generation network were answered last week when the two companies announced plans to overlay a high-speed packet access (HSPA) network. The rollout is expected to be complete in time for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics. The deployment will also provide them a smooth transition to LTE."By adding the capabilities of HSPA, Telus has a smoother evolution path as the world transitions to LTE," the company noted in a news release. Bell said, "Overlaying HSPA on its national network will offer Bell the most efficient upgrade path to the 4G LTE broadband standard in coming years."But does that mean next-generation mobile networks in Canada will largely be based on LTE? While there haven't been any mobile WiMAX champions forging ahead here as Sprint-Clearwire have done south of the border, that doesn't mean there won't be. There are approximately 30 licensees of 3.5 GHz spectrum, which is ideal for WiMAX, but today few operators have done anything significant on this front.Primus Telecommunications Canada has been trialing mobile WiMAX in Toronto and Hamilton. Barrett Xplore Inc. just secured a vast swath of 3.5 GHz spectrum in most rural areas across the country, but its plan focuses primarily on fixed Internet access.There are other regional providers with spectrum that could be used for mobile WiMAX. They include fixed wireless ISPs such as Look Communications in Ontario and Quebec; SaskTel, the incumbent phone company in Saskatchewan; Yourlink Inc.; and Craig Wireless in Manitoba and BC.Inukshuk Internet is another big player in this space with spectrum licences covering every province with the exceptions of Saskatchewan, Manitoba and parts of BC. But it has deployed proprietary broadband wireless equipment that can only provide portable, not mobile, services.Nortel Networks remains a big believer in WiMAX, even after halting R&D in the area as part of a partnership with Alvarion. Regina Moldovan, leader of WiMAX product marketing for Ottawa-based Nortel concedes that LTE will dominate the Canadian market. However, she notes that, "A lot of big operators are planning to go mainly LTE, but they're testing and trialing WiMAX as well."When will 4G arrive?In Canada, operators won't likely begin deploying LTE for another four or five years. Other markets such as the US could see LTE rollouts start as early as next year. Verizon has said it could deploy LTE as early as late 2009, but it is more likely 2010. AT&T anticipates 2010. Motorola, Ericsson and other equipment vendors have said they will have product in 2009."It depends on the decisions of very big operators," Ericsson Canada CTO Dragan Nerandzic says of the timing. "But we believe we can easily accommodate their schedules. 2009 will be a very interesting year for LTE. Then in 2010, we'll see more substantial deployments by big operators around the world."Rogers is non-committal. It will keep an eye on Verizon's experience, Robinson says. One concern is that while the network infrastructure equipment might be available, the ecosystem of other equipment and services won't be mature and that could delay network deployment.Realistically, 2011 seems a better bet for large-scale deployments by big operators - and none of the Canadian carriers qualifies as big by world standards. Dawood Khan, a partner in Markham ON-based Kazam Group Inc., pegs Canadian rollout even later, perhaps 2012. "And are fast followers at best," he says. "So 2013 for us."

Commentary: Battle for 4G mobile wireless begins to take shape

News | 10/16/2008 6:52 pm EDT

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