Fibre and wireless to overtake copper and wireline by 2015, new study projects

The telephone grid of the future will be a network of packet switches and fibre optics, replacing circuit switches and copper, according to a new study. Broadband will be used primarily for data and video as consumers rely on wireless for voice communications. That glimpse into what may unfold is provided in The Local Exchange Network in 2015, the latest report from Technology Futures Inc. (TFI) of Austin TX. The 23-page study was prepared for the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group, which counts Bell Canada as a member. The report’s author, Lawrence Vanston, used published and unpublished forecasts by TFI to examine the basic drivers of technology that affect the telephony system. He concedes that choosing between competing technological alternatives is daunting. When such choices had to be made, they reflect majority thinking from today. The report predicts that most communication services will be delivered by one conglomerate. "Most households in 2015 get their Internet access, cable tele-vision service, and wireline voice from the same company," Vanston writes. "As wireline voice revenues declined throughout the 2000s, incumbent local exchange carriers added video services to effectively compete against cable television and new entrants, both offering a full bundle of services at a discount." The decline in wireline revenues is predicated on the migration from wired to wireless phones. TFI expects that within a dozen years or so, consumers will use cellular devices for voice and low-speed data. "In 2015, about 90 per cent of North Americans are wireless users," the study says. "Almost 70 per cent of North American households no longer have a standard wireline telephone connection and use wireless or, occasionally, computer telephony instead." TFI expects that all ILEC medium and large business customers will be served directly by fibre optics. Residential and small business customers will be served by deep fibre systems. All deep fibre systems have fibre extending to an end node within 1,000 feet of the client premises. Most routes will use dense wavelength division multiplexing and/or passive optical network technology. The most common deep fibre systems deployed in 2015 will be VDSL, fibre-to-the-premises, and advanced hybrid/fibre coax. This move to new technologies means the virtual elimination of the once-standard carriage system. "By 2015, less than five per cent of the distribution copper cable that was in place in 2000 is still useful," Vanston writes. "Network planners currently expect the last copper cable to be removed from the distribution network by 2020, with VDSL drop wires being the only copper left in the outside plant." The author foresees an explosion in connectivity, and with that increase will come a reliance on more sophisticated support systems. "At the end of 2015, 88 per cent of North American households are online. About 82 per cent of households are served on broadband systems and about six per cent still use only analog modems or narrowband wireless connections." TFI predicts that most residential customers will have a gateway that provides an interface between broadband access service and their home LAN. The LAN would serve devices such as computers, telephones, TVs, and smart appliances.

Fibre and wireless to overtake copper and wireline by 2015, new study projects

News | 04/09/2002 4:00 am EDT

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