The future of TV? On-demand, and online

Perhaps the most telling aspect of the final session at this year's Banff World Television Festival, billed as a critical look at ‘The Future of Television,' was that it ended with an hour-long talk about the Internet.The panel discussion aimed to address three key questions raised by Nordicity Group Ltd.'s Banff Green Paper 2007: The Future of Television in Canada, a document prepared in conjunction with the "town hall" session closing the festival. Those questions: Is the broadcasting system collapsing? Is the new broadcast paradigm a "zero-sum" game, where the real winners come from outside the regulated system? Finally, what does broadcast regulation and policy look like in this new world?Some on the panel were blunt when addressing the first of that trio. "I'd say about 20% of the industry is toast," said Telus Corp. VP of broadband and video policy Michael Hennessy, later revising that estimate to as much as 35%.Hennessy urged producers and programmers to fight back by identifying and winning a core audience. "At the end of the day everything is becoming so discretionary," he said, adding that those services catering to a special-interest niche audience will likely find enough support to survive.Norm Bolen, executive VP of content at Alliance Atlantis Communications Inc., agreed the future was uncertain for television: while the current crop of TV services appears to be holding its own - more so on the specialty channel side than conventional broadcasters - "there's no guarantee that it won't collapse," he said.One of the biggest challenges: keeping the traditional programming rights model intact in the Internet era, including Canadian broadcasters' lucrative right to simulcast US programming. "Some of these threats are killers for our business model," Bolen added.While some might hold out hope for Canadians to rebuild their presence on emerging platforms, here the picture is equally grim, according to Bolen. "What are we doing in these spaces? We're getting crushed," he said. In the case of such platforms as video on demand, "Our content is not seen as the premium content that's going to drive these services - it's just not," he said.But CRTC associate executive director of broadcasting Scott Hutton, who appeared before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Canadian Heritage earlier this year to provide insight into how technology is changing both public and private television, vigorously defended the Canadian broadcasting system and its future prospects. "Our industry is certainly not collapsing, and anyone who's seen our regulatory decisions lately and our reports to the minister will see that," Hutton said. "Our industry has been faced with a number of threats since we've been here, and we've always survived and adapted and succeeded."Lucie Lalumiere, VP and GM of interactive at Corus Entertainment Inc.'s television division, said that not only is YTV competing with Canadian-produced kids content online, it has to contend with foreign unregulated Internet content as well. "I do believe we're challenged, but there's lots of opportunity," she said.And Lalumiere challenged an earlier assertion by Marcela Kadanka, senior director of arts and entertainment at CBC Television, who said that specialty broadcasters will suffer most from the emergence of video on demand and other competing discretionary services. "We believe that specialty is much better positioned than conventional," Lalumiere said.But Directors Guild of Canada general counsel and director of regulatory affairs Monique Lafontaine argued from the audience that the respective bids for CHUM Ltd.'s assets tendered by CTVglobemedia and Rogers Communications Inc. - both of which offer a healthy premium over independent valuations - prove there is value left in conventional television.And while nearly all panel members believed that broadcast regulation needs fine-tuning, there was some disagreement on what form it should take. "Some people, like the Ted Rogers of the world, are going to win big, because they keep taking risks," said Telus' Hennessy. Others, however, "are hoping that the regulator will come in with a new fund or something to save them."Valerie Creighton, president of the Canadian Television Fund, admitted that Canadian producers and broadcasters do enjoy "a protected environment," but added that's not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, she said, "we're lucky to have it," and international producers envy the support their Canadian counterparts receive from government.But the CRTC's Hutton warned that the environment that nurtures Canadian producers will likely have to change. "You probably have to move from protection to promotion," he said.Although he agreed that all stakeholders must try to create a new model together, Mario Mota, senior director of broadcast relations and research at the Canadian Film and Television Production Association, rejected the notion that producers were protected and coddled by the system to a greater extent than broadcasters. "We know the economic value of simulcasting and simultaneous substitution ," he said. "Maybe we need to throw that out."Take a real hard look at the Canadian content in deep prime time - it's almost nonexistent," Mota continued. "Canadian broadcasters have an addiction to foreign programming, particularly US." But, he added, it's not because Cancon is inferior: "When all the elements are there, I'll put Canadian content against any in the world."Hennessy admitted that the quality of Canadian productions has increased dramatically. "The stuff that we're funding is as good as the stuff from the US and UK," he said. "It's not ‘I can tell that's Canadian' anymore.""The stuff that we're creating here is compelling, it's ground-breaking," echoed marblemedia partner and producer Mark Bishop. Case in point: marblemedia's own Shorts in Motion: The Art of Seduction, which won nominations at the Canadian New Media Awards, the International Interactive Emmy Awards, and the Banff World Television Awards.Shorts in Motion is the type of homegrown content that Canadians can excel at in a brave new multi-platform world, Bishop said. "It was built for mobile, but it was able to go online, it was TV content, it was theatrical," he said.Corus' Lalumiere also pressed for more tax shelters and credits for funding Canadian productions, which make it more compelling for private broadcasters to satisfy the demand for capital left unfilled by the limited number of publicly funded programs.Alliance Atlantis' Bolen, meanwhile, urged all sides in the debate to get together and hammer out a cohesive plan for addressing new technologies and opportunities. "We need a strategy, we don't even have a process for creating a strategy," he said. "If you don't know where you're going, you're going to get there."But Hennessy cautioned against building reliance on external funding into such a plan, and noted that dialogue is good, but doesn't accomplish anything in and of itself."You've got to start thinking like people in a market, because there's not going to be anyone to help out for much longer," he said. "The ones who are sitting in the room, talking, are going to be toast."

The future of TV? On-demand, and online

News | 06/22/2007 12:13 pm EDT

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