The opinions expressed in this editorial are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Decima Reports. The number of mobile-to-mobile text messages sent in Canada during the month of November hit the 20-million mark, the Canadian Wireless Telecommunications Association (CWTA) reported last week. The wireless industry may focus on this figure as a key milestone or even a major trend indicator of SMS growth in Canada, but a closer look at text messaging since inter-carrier capabilities were introduced in April 2002 suggests that the celebrations should be somewhat tempered. A 98% increase in the number of messages sent and received over levels recorded prior to the introduction of inter-carrier SMS translates into a doubling of the number. If 20 million messages were sent in the month of November, then about 10 million were sent in the month of March. There’s no question that a doubling in the amount of text messages sent and received in the past eight months is significant, but not if the addressable market increased by four times during that same period. One might have assumed that if Microcell Telecommunications Inc.’s subscribers, for example, could "text" with the subscribers of the other three wireless operators that the number of messages would have tripled. The same should hold true for the other carriers as well. Assuming that each carrier had an equal share in the number of messages (2.5 million) prior to April 2002, then each carrier should have recorded 7.5 million text messages in the month of November. This would translate into 30 million messages for November as opposed to the 20 million announced by the CWTA. While this is likely an oversimplification, the general meaning of the equation does make some sense. On the surface, it would appear as though the Canadian SMS market actually shrank since inter-carrier capabilities were turned on last April. What should be noted in this is that revenue derived from SMS will still be quite small compared to carriers’ overall revenue. We should, however, commend the carriers for trying to come up with flexible pricing plans that will drive SMS revenue to become a more substantial portion of their overall top line.